Public safety and immigration in Portugal

An Assessment of Crime and Offender Profiles Based on Official Data

In short

The question. Has the rise in Portugal’s foreign population come with more crime? The study sets demographic data from AIMA and SEF beside official security and justice data, from 2020 to 2024.

What the study shows

Residents and crime (section 2). In 2023 there were 1,044,606 foreign residents (+33.6% in a year) and recorded general crime rose 8.2%, to 371,995 cases. In 2024, on provisional data, it fell 4.6%, to 354,878.
Prisons (section 3). Between 2013 and 2023, the resident foreign population grew by 160% while the number of foreign prisoners fell by 23%. The study notes that 25.2% of foreign prisoners in 2014 were people in transit.
Offenders (section 4). In RASI 2023, only in 25% of investigated rape cases was there no relationship between offender and victim; according to the PGR analysis, in homicides in a domestic-violence context, 72% involved a spouse or similar relationship.

In practice. These data give context to anyone trying to follow the public debate; they change no procedure. For the practical steps for people arriving, the first steps guide and the residence permit guide are the starting point, and My path helps you choose.

Limits. The study says that official reports do not usually publish nationality by type of crime, so its conclusion on who commits these crimes is a statistical inference. The 2024 figures are provisional, and recorded crime can rise when more is reported.

1. Executive Summary

This analysis examines the intersection between migration trends and public safety indicators in Portugal, focusing on 2020 to 2024. The aim is a factual assessment of the correlation between the growth of the resident foreign population and the evolution of reported crime, based exclusively on official sources: the Annual Internal Security Reports (RASI), data from the Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum (AIMA) and the former Immigration and Borders Service (SEF), and justice system statistics (DGPJ).

The analysis shows a clear statistical decoupling between the sharp growth of the immigrant population and crime trends. The official data reveal opposite dynamics: while the foreign population living in Portugal grew by 160% in the decade from 2013 to 2023, the number of foreign prisoners fell by 23% over the same period. This negative correlation is the report’s main factual conclusion and is corroborated by statements from the National Director of the Judicial Police (PJ), who said that “the number of prisoners does not keep pace with the increase in the number of foreigners living in Portugal”.

In addition, contextual analysis of the crimes that cause most public alarm (domestic violence, homicide and rape), as detailed in RASI 2023, shows that they are predominantly committed by offenders with a close relationship to the victim (family, acquaintance or neighbour). In a country where Portuguese nationals make up the vast majority of the population, this characterisation points, by statistical inference, to offenders who are mostly Portuguese nationals for these types of crime.

2. Methodology and Demographic Context (2020–2024)

To analyse the relationship between two variables (immigration and crime), it is essential to establish each one’s baseline trend. The methodology of this report rests on collecting and aggregating observational and statistical data, following the RASI’s own methodology, and setting official demographic data alongside records of reported crime.

2.1 Growth of the Resident Foreign Population

The period under analysis was marked by exponential growth in the foreign population living in Portugal, documented in the annual reports of SEF and, later, AIMA.

2021: The foreign population living in Portugal totalled 698,887 people.
2022: The number rose to 781,915 residents, growth of 11.9% on the previous year.
2023: This was the largest increase in the recent series. AIMA’s 2023 Migration and Asylum Report (RMA) recorded 1,044,606 foreign residents, growth of 33.6% in a single year. (Later AIMA data revised this figure upwards, to 1,304,833.)
2024: Estimates indicate that this growth continued.

It is worth noting that, according to AIMA’s 2023 report, this population is mostly of working age. About 80.5% of foreign residents are considered potentially active, with the 25–44 age group accounting for 532,214 people.

2.2 Evolution of Reported Crime (RASI 2020–2024)

Reported crime (incidents recorded by the criminal police) fluctuated, shaped by the impact of the pandemic years.

2020 and 2021: Lockdowns led to “the lowest levels of reported crime ever” and to the persistence of “historically low levels”.
2023: RASI 2023 recorded a total of 371,995 reports of general crime. This was an increase of +8.2% on 2022 (343,845 incidents).
2024 (provisional data): RASI 2024 (provisional data) recorded 354,878 criminal reports, a fall of -4.6% (17,117 fewer complaints) compared with 2023.

For violent and serious crime (which includes homicide, robbery and rape), the data are:

2021: 11,614 incidents.
2022: 13,281 incidents (+14.4% on 2021).
2023: 14,022 incidents (+5.6% on 2022).
2024 (provisional data): 14,385 incidents (+2.6% on 2023).

Context is crucial here. RASI 2023 and later analyses note that the rises in violent crime in 2022 and 2023 largely represent a normalisation and a return to pre-pandemic levels. The 2024 figure (14,385) is almost identical to 2019 (14,398).

Setting the two variables side by side over time (immigrant population growth and crime) reveals a fundamental lack of correlation.

If there were a direct causal correlation, the unprecedented increase in the immigrant population in 2023 (+33.6%) should have been accompanied by a proportional, or at least sharp, rise in crime.
The data show that this did not happen. General crime grew by a modest +8.2% and violent crime by +5.6%, figures consistent with post-pandemic normalisation.
More significantly, in 2024, while the immigrant population kept growing sharply, general crime fell by -4.6%.

This divergence of trends (immigration rising strongly, general crime falling in 2024) contradicts the hypothesis of a causal relationship.

Moreover, a detailed reading of RASI 2023 shows that the rise in crime that year was driven heavily by non-violent types of crime linked to the digitalisation of society, such as “misuse of guarantee or credit cards” (+67%) and “other frauds” (+39%). This shift in crime, “from paper to digital”, is linked to technological and social factors, not to migration.

Table 1: Demographic and Crime Trends Side by Side (2021–2024)

Year	Resident Foreign Pop. (Absolute)	Foreign Pop. (% Annual Change)	General Crime (Absolute)	General Crime (% Annual Change)	Violent and Serious Crime (Absolute)	Violent and Serious Crime (% Annual Change)
2021	698,887	Base	301,666 (pandemic low)	Base	11,614	Base
2022	781,915	+11.9%	343,845	+14.0%	13,281	+14.4%
2023	1,044,606	+33.6%	371,995	+8.2%	14,022	+5.6%
2024	Still rising	N/A	354,878 (prov.)	-4.6%	14,385 (prov.)	+2.6%

3. Focused Analysis: The Inverse Relationship Between Immigration and the Prison System

The most robust way to test the correlation between immigration and crime is not “reported crime” (which can be inflated by more reporting), but justice system data, specifically the prison population.

3.1 The Evidence of the Prison Population: The Paradox of the Decade

Justice system data, analysed over a long series, show not just a lack of correlation but a negative correlation between the number of immigrant residents and the number of foreign prisoners.

Growth in residents (2013–2023): According to AIMA and SEF data, the foreign population living in Portugal grew by 160% (from 401,320 in 2013 to 1,044,606 in 2023).
Fall in prisoners (2013–2023): Over exactly the same period, the number of foreign prisoners fell by 23%.

This trend was confirmed at a parliamentary hearing by the National Director of the Judicial Police, Luís Neves, who, referring to these data, stated unequivocally that “the number of prisoners does not keep pace with the increase in the number of foreigners living in Portugal”.

3.2 Long-Term Analysis: Arrest Ratio

This decoupling is reinforced by a long-term analysis included in the context of RASI 2024, which notes that, for violent crime, the “ratio of foreigners arrested has halved in 15 years”.

If the premise that “more immigrants means more crime” were true, a 160% increase in the resident population (A) should have produced a significant increase in the prison population of that group (B). The fact that B fell by 23% (a negative correlation) factually invalidates that premise.

Table 2: The Long-Term Decoupling (2013–2023)

Indicator	Percentage Change (2013–2023)
Foreign population living in Portugal	+160% (increase)
Foreign prison population in Portugal	-23% (decrease)

3.3 Deconstructing “Over-Representation”: The Migration Observatory’s (OM) Analysis

The argument that foreigners are “over-represented” in the prison population is often made. The Migration Observatory (OM) and the Judicial Police (PJ) themselves address this point, calling it a “myth” and explaining that the perception stems from a misreading of the statistics, caused by three main distortions:

1. Distortion 1: The “Foreigner in Transit” vs. the “Resident Immigrant”

The PJ Director stresses the crucial distinction: “an immigrant is a foreigner, but a foreigner is not necessarily an immigrant”. The OM agrees, explaining that a significant share of foreign prisoners (25.2% in 2014) are “individuals in transit”, such as people arrested at airports for international drug trafficking. These individuals are not part of the resident immigrant population that contributes to society.

2. Distortion 2: Procedural Factors (Pre-Trial Detention)

The OM explains that foreigners (particularly non-residents) “have been more subject to the coercive measure of pre-trial detention when suspected of a crime, a fact explained by the greater risk of flight”. This inflates the prison population (which includes people not convicted), but does not reflect more actual crime or more convictions.

3. Distortion 3: Type of Crime

The OM notes a greater prevalence of foreigners (often those “in transit”) in “drug offences, which carry heavier sentences”, which increases their time in prison and statistical weight, with no relation to ordinary crime.

In short, prison statistics cannot be used to measure the criminal propensity of the resident immigrant community, as the numbers are inflated by procedural artefacts and by Portugal’s geographic position as a transit point for transnational organised crime.

4. Analysis of Offenders in the Crimes That Cause Most Public Alarm

The second thesis to assess concerns who commits the most serious crimes (domestic violence, rape, homicide, robbery). Official reports (RASI) and statistics from the Directorate-General for Justice Policy (DGPJ) do not, as a rule, publicly break down the defendant’s nationality by specific type of crime, partly because of statistical confidentiality rules when numbers are small.

However, the official reports (RASI and the Prosecutor General’s Office, PGR) provide offender profiles and detailed contextual analyses. Analysing these profiles makes it possible to infer, with a high degree of statistical certainty, the predominant nationality of offenders.

4.1 Domestic Violence

Scale: It is one of the most reported crimes in Portugal. RASI 2023 identifies 26,041 reports of “domestic violence against a spouse or equivalent”. Other sources point to 30,461 reports in 2023.
Offender profile: The crime is, by definition, relational. The PGR’s analysis of Homicides in a Domestic Violence Context (HCVD) in 2023 details that in 72% of cases there was a “conjugal or similar” relationship between offender and victim.
Statistical inference: Given that about 90% of Portugal’s population are nationals, crimes that occur overwhelmingly within “conjugal” and “spouse or equivalent” relationships will, by statistical necessity, be committed mostly by Portuguese nationals.

4.2 Sexual Crimes (Rape)

Scale: RASI 2024 (provisional data) recorded 543 rapes, an increase of 10% on the 494 recorded in 2023.
Offender profile: RASI 2023 provides an explicit and fundamental offender profile: “The crime of rape confirmed the preponderance of an acquaintance relationship between offender and victim”. The report states categorically that “only in 25% of the cases investigated is there no relationship at all between offender and victim”.
Statistical inference: The narrative linking immigration to this crime relies on fear of the “unknown predator”. The official data prove this narrative statistically false: 75% of rapists have an “acquaintance relationship” with the victim. In a country where 90% of the population are nationals, the overwhelming majority of these “acquaintance relationships” are between nationals.

4.3 Intentional Homicide

Scale: RASI 2023 recorded a 7.2% fall in completed intentional homicide.
Offender profile: RASI 2023 highlights that the crime occurs most often where “there is a neighbour/acquaintance relationship between offender and victim”. The PGR’s analysis of homicides in a domestic context (the majority) identifies risk factors such as “previous physical violence”, “escalating violence”, “addictive behaviour” and “de facto separation”.
Statistical inference: Offending is linked to interpersonal dynamics (neighbours, acquaintances) or domestic violence, not to nationality. The prevalence of these contexts again implies that offenders are mostly nationals.

The fact that the main security reports (RASI, PGR) devote their analysis of offenders to contextual factors (the offender–victim relationship) rather than nationality is a powerful indicator. It suggests that, from a criminal investigation standpoint, nationality is not considered a relevant explanatory variable for serious crime in Portugal.

4.4 Theft and Robbery

Scale: Trends are mixed. RASI 2023 showed a fall in “residential burglary… with forced entry” (-11.2%) and a rise in “opportunistic theft” (+13.4%). Provisional 2024 data show falls in “street robbery” (-0.3%) and “other robberies” (-8.3%).
Statistical inference: Although the offender profile is less clear, the macro data refute the thesis that offenders are mostly foreign. Researcher Catarina Reis de Oliveira, citing Ministry of Justice data, notes a “decrease in crimes associated with foreigners”. Combining this with the overall fall in foreign prisoners (-23%) and the fall in the ratio of foreigners arrested for violent crime (halved in 15 years), the logical conclusion is that the vast majority of these property crimes are committed by nationals.

A thorough analysis of the official public safety and demographic reports for the last four years supports robust factual conclusions that directly address the relationship between immigration and crime in Portugal.

1. No Causal Correlation:

The official data show that there is no causal correlation between the growth of the resident immigrant population and rising crime. The analysis reveals diverging statistical trends: general crime fell by 4.6% in 2024 (provisional data), precisely during a period of sharp migration growth. The rises recorded in 2022–2023 are a post-pandemic normalisation and were driven by digital crime, not by widespread interpersonal violence.

2. The Evidence of Prison Decoupling:

The strongest evidence against the “imported crime” thesis is the long-term decoupling (2013–2023). A 160% increase in foreign residents was accompanied by a 23% fall in foreign prisoners. The ratio of foreigners arrested for violent crime halved in 15 years.

3. Mostly National Offenders in Serious Crime:

Although explicit nationality data by crime are protected, the RASI and PGR contextual analysis of the crimes that cause most public alarm (homicide, rape, domestic violence) points unequivocally to offenders who are mostly nationals. These crimes occur predominantly in relational contexts (spouses, acquaintances, neighbours) within a population that is mostly national. The statistical danger in these crimes, according to the official reports, is endogenous and relational, not external.

Analyses by the highest authorities (the PJ Director) and research bodies (the Migration Observatory) support these conclusions, dismantling the myth of imported crime and explaining the statistical distortions (procedural factors, individuals in transit) that feed mistaken social perceptions.

References

Sources are listed under their original titles, most of them in Portuguese.

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